Expectations help policy makers in the choice of technology

11 October 2011

Policy makers who want to encourage the introduction of new, sustainable technologies by means of grants should investigate whether the expectations about the new technology are unequivocal. Consensus from the various parties involved about the future potential of a new technology is, namely, a good indicator for determining if the technology is ready for large-scale implementation. This is the conclusion of NWO researcher Floortje Alkemade and Roald Suurs from TNO. 

If all parties agree that a certain technology has the future then this has been sufficiently developed say the researchers. 'Investing in large-scale implementation is a logical next step in a technology’s development,' says Alkemade.

The lobby for investment in sustainable technology is strong. Interested parties know which policy makers at the various government departments decide whether grants should be approved. They therefore often create high expectations of their new, environmentally-friendly technology. Policy makers have to decide which technologies will be supported and how. Alkemade: 'Policy makers must very critically investigate in advance whether the technology they want to subsidise is indeed ready for implementation. They can do that by carefully examining the scientific studies available about the technology. These studies can, however, contradict each other or be equally praiseworthy of all the technologies concerned. Moreover, it is not just the technological performances that determine the success of the technology. We have found another method that policy makers can use, namely surveying the expectations of the various parties, so not just the scientists, about a new technology. Our research reveals that consensus in the expectations is a good indicator for determining if the technology is mature enough for large-scale implementation.'

Future

Alkemade and Suurs carried out their research by surveying expectations about the introduction of cars powered by biofuels, natural gas and hydrogen. These three technologies are competing with each other and with cars that use fossil fuels to become the technology of the future. However, none of these new technologies have been introduced in the Netherlands on a large scale.

The researchers used a large database with all statements and articles about these technologies from both laypersons and experts and in both professional journals and in the more general media. Their analysis revealed that the expectations about the new cars corresponded with their phase of development. For hydrogen-powered and biofuel-powered cars the expectations are still far too diverse. Parties differ in their opinions as to whether these cars have a future. These doubts concur with the phase of development: a lot of technological uncertainty remains for hydrogen cars and there are growing doubts about the sustainability of biofuels. There is, however, greater consensus about the future of cars that run on natural gas, which reflects the mature status this technology has.

Alkemade and Suurs published their findings online last week in the scientific journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change.

Alkemade is carrying out her research with a Veni grant from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO). The Veni grant of 250,000 euros is intended for scientists who have recently gained their PhDs and counts as an important step in a scientific career. It is one of the most prestigious grants for talented young researchers. Alkemade is employed at Utrecht University.

About NWO

The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) is the independent Dutch science funding body and its mission is to facilitate excellent scientific research in the Netherlands by means of national competition. Each year NWO spends more than 500 million euros on grants for top research and top researchers, on innovative instruments and equipment, and on institutes where top research is performed. NWO funds the research of more than 5300 talented researchers at universities and institutes. Independent experts select proposals by means of a peer review system. NWO facilitates the transfer of knowledge to society and industry.

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last modified on 2 November 2011