Sustainable Accessibility of the Randstad

CESAR: Climate and Environmental change and Sustainable Accessibility of the Randstad

Prof M. Dijst (Utrecht University), in collaboration with the University of Amsterdam, Radboud University Nijmegen and Wageningen University and Research Centre

The CESAR programme will produce knowledge and tools for spatial planners who want to take into consideration the changing climate conditions in the low-lying Randstad region. To that end, the researchers will analyse the connections between spatial use and infrastructure, meteorological processes and human mobility patterns.

Read an interview with Martin Dijst (April 2010)

General aim

The five research questions are:

  1. What are the impacts of anticipated climate change on activity and travel patterns and for choices for residential locations and car ownership?
  2. What are the impacts of spatial configurations of various land uses and infrastructures on the urban climate as well as adaptation and mitigation strategies?
  3. What are the crucial mechanisms to successfully integrate scientific knowledge about the relations between climate change and spatial configurations in participative strategic planning processes to achieve more informative strategy making?
  4. What are the attributes of an interactive planning support system which allow participative development of strategic spatial development scenarios under changing climate conditions for the Randstad?
  5. Which strategic spatial developments scenarios for the Randstad are most satisfactory to adapt and mitigate climate change?
    The first four questions will be addressed in separate but linked projects. The fifth question will be part of all four projects.

Expected main scientific results

  • Integration of geographical, meteorological and planning knowledge and tools to encourage satisfying spatial planning strategies in the Randstad under changing climate conditions.
  • Experience with the evaluation and design of planning support systems for collaborative development in a complex regional setting for various regional coalitions.
  • Insight in the relationships between mobility and residential choices and meteorological processes.
  • Insight in the relationships between configurations of land uses and infrastructures and meteorological processes.
  • Development of a meteorological forecasting model for Randstad
  • Development of mechanisms for the integration of scientific knowledge in spatial strategy making processes.

Expected main results relevant for policy makers

At present no interactive planning support systems are available for the Randstad. Given the lack of instruments, the magnitude of challenges and the complexity of the planning environment, policy makers are ill-prepared for their task of strategy development for a ‘climate proof’ accessible Randstad. In this programme the planning support system Urban Strategy in combination with mediated planning support are tailored made to the accessibility problems of the Randstad under changing climate conditions. This planning system will remain available for further use in planning processes. Insights into behavioural responses to climate change and the interaction between spatial configurations and meteorological processes will be developed. The outcomes will be robust for various regional coalitions and planning scenarios that could develop in the future.

Plan of dissemination

The programme will produce approximately 3-4 academic and 2 professional papers per year (including joint papers), 3 PhD theses and detailed reports on the Urban Strategy implementation for the Randstad. Publications are foreseen in the following disciplinary spheres:

  1. Transport and environmental policy
  2. Urban meteorology 
  3. Spatial planning and Transport Geography 
  4. Information systems.

A book aimed at researchers and professionals in the Netherlands will be published after the closing conference. For the international academic community the main results will be published in an interdisciplinary special issue of an international scientific journal.  The potential end-user planner groups will be involved throughout the project via interviews, surveys, and the joint planning workshops and the final conference. The dissemination of the results will take place through these events. The dissemination of the Urban Strategy tool will also be taken up by TNO, the owner of the instrument. The ambition is to apply the model in research contracts for governments in the Randstad together with the universities participating in the project. Participants of the programme will organize a special session on the programme’s theme at international scientific conferences.

Project 1: Impact of climate change on mobility and residential choices

Prof. dr. Martin Dijst, UU

Research questions:

  1. What is the impact of socio-demographics and spatial configurations of land uses and infrastructures on choices for activities and transport modes under various weather conditions?
  2. What is the impact of socio-demographics and spatial configurations of land uses and infrastructures on choices for (primary and secondary) residential locations and car ownership under various weather conditions?

The first stage of this project will be focused on an analysis of the National Travel Survey MON
(Mobiliteitsonderzoek Nederland) in combination with meteorological data. For various population categories and residential environments of the Randstad the impact of weather on travel behaviour attributes (like mode choice, destination choice, travel distance and time) will be analysed in multivariate models. In the second stage of the project a fieldwork will be conducted. The data will be analysed by applying multivariate analytical methods. This project is linked with project 2 in which among others the relationship between meteorological variables, like temperature, humidity and wind, and the spatial configuration of land uses and infrastructures will be studied. The impact of meteorological conditions on behavioural decisions will be analysed in project 1. The results of these analyses will be used in project 3 as scientific knowledge to be integrated in spatial strategic making processes. A matrix which includes behavioural decisions of various population categories present in different spatial contexts and under various meteorological conditions will be used in Urban Strategy (project 4).

Project 2: Developing and evaluation of a modelling framework for urban weather and
climate studies

Prof. dr. Bert Holtslag, WUR

The envisaged research aims to develop and to evaluate a model instrumentation which provides meteorological variables (in particular temperature, humidity and wind) in the Randstad, for different spatial and socio-economical scenarios of urban development, including urban configurations and morphologies, population density and anthropogenic activities. The ultimate aim is to set up a module or sub-model that can be included into the interactive Urban Strategy planning support system.  The results of this project concerning the relationship between meteorological variables, like temperature, humidity and wind, and the spatial configuration of land uses will be used in project 1. The results of these analyses will also be used in project 3. A simplified version of the developed NWP model will be used as a module in project 4.

Project 3: Improving integration of expert with tacit knowledge for strategic planning
processes

Prof. dr. ir. Luca Bertolini, UvA

The research project will be structured into two parts. These parts will be performed in parallel and are designed to reinforce each other. Part A builds on high control – context poor research methods whereas Part B uses low control – context rich methods:
A. The fundamental question underlying the research goal is whether specific knowledge management mechanisms, often developed in relation to intra-organizational learning as occurs in firms, can be translated to the domain of urban strategy making. The latter happens in an environment far more complex and dynamic with actors that are only partly committed to the group goal and have hidden agendas. This fundamental research question will be answered through formal experiments.
B. Research part B is complementary to part A. Whereas Part A achieves high control to test the validity of generic claims, here the control is lowered to gain more insights in the specific context conditions for linking expert knowledge to strategy making processes. For this, workshops will be organised in different settings in the Randstad in which planning actors are invited to develop sustainable urban strategies. They will be supported with expert information on climate – urban dynamics.
This project links the (intermediary) results of projects 1 and 2 (expert knowledge) to the concrete processes of sustainable strategy making. Through the workshops of part B it feeds back how the knowledge is used and how it can be improved. The project uses the workshops of project 4 (organized to develop a useful PSS) to observe the context dynamics of the relations between knowledge and strategy making. The Post-doc of this project also coordinates the coherence between the different projects.

Project 4: Urban Strategy climate proof

Dr. S. Geertman (principal) / Prof. dr. ir. Rob Van der Heijden, UU / RUN

This project experiments with the application of different process models, policies and designs of planning support systems, to develop strategies for improving accessibility within the Randstad in the context of climate change. Our hypothesis is that the consideration of climate change issues, including the relevant behavioural responses, will result in different outcomes of:

  • spatial planning processes, where, for example, new interdependencies will arise between spatial planning policies (e.g. water management and land);
  • spatial designs of the urban area itself, through, for example, a changed prioritization of infrastructure projects (e.g. prioritizing a core network which is robust for flooding).

The research questions of this project are:

  1. In what way(s) can scientific knowledge concerning the relationship climate change – land-use change - behavioural adaptation be incorporated in an existing PSS (Urban Strategy)?
  2. What roles can the adapted PSS play to actively support strategic spatial planning processes to better address the policy consequences of expected climate change?

The proposed research project will be structured into three parts. To accomplish this research close collaboration with the other projects is essential, both in a substantial and in a process-oriented way. Moreover, collaboration with external partners is foreseen with colleagues of Manchester University and University of Leeds. The project links the (intermediary) results of projects 1 and 2 (expert knowledge) to the concrete processes of sustainable strategy making by incorporating this knowledge codified in an existing Urban Strategy PSS. It provides the ICT platform that will spatially visualise the outcomes of projects 1 and 2. Moreover, it is closely related to Post-doc project 3 as it provides the ICT instrument that can accompany the mediated planning support (MPS). In fact, the ICT system and the MPS will be interdependent in the sense that the major validation steps will take place for both streams during the experiments.