Strategy towards sustainable and reliable multi-modal transport in the Randstad (SRMT)

Prof. dr. ing. I.A. Hansen, Delft University of Technology, in collaboration with the University of Twente, the University of Amsterdam and VU University Amsterdam

The scientists from the SRMT programme are looking at spatial use, location choice, multimodal transport networks (combinations of different forms of transport), mobility behaviour and mobility policy. This allows them to research various ways of keeping the Randstad accessible in a sustainable manner, addressing the issue from a broad perspective.

Read an interview with Ingo Hansen (April 2010)

General aim

This programme will develop comprehensive strategies for the Randstad based on integrated scientific approaches for land-use, location choices, multimodal transport network design, travel behaviour and transport policy. These enable the estimation and evaluation of performance and impact of different transition paths to more sustainable mobility and improved accessibility. Innovative models will describe the propensity to travel by (a combination of) environmentally friendly transport modes as walking, cycling, bus, tram, metro, light and heavy railway as function of accessibility, quality of transport service, attractiveness, cost and purpose of travel. This programme provides an integrated approach for transport, land use and transition processes based on a balanced modelling of unimodal and multimodal trips including intermodal feedback from capacity constraints.
The models to be developed will allow to assess the effects of

1. increased density of housing, business, education, public services around public transport stops and railway stations
2. higher speed, frequency, punctuality, reliability and comfort of bus, tram and railway services,
3. transport infrastructure extensions and capacity management on transport demand, modal share, network traffic flows, capacity use and environment.

The focus of modelling will be put on a consistent estimation and validation of accessibility and transfer resistances within multimodal transport chains. The developed integrated land-use, multimodal transport and traffic models will be applied to the Randstad area to test and assess the impact of a number of transport policy and network development options for 2040 on accessibility, sustainability, robustness and modal split.

Expected scientific results

• Formulation of theoretical urban economic model with explicit attention to multimodal network structure.
• Empirical study of contribution of rail related developments to productivity in metropolitan areas via agglomeration effects in the Randstad.
• Empirical study of urban densities based on GIS data on building heights and the role of railway accessibility in Randstad cities.
• Reinterpretation of system innovation and transition management theories to make them applicable to the field of transport and land use planning and development.
• Cross-national, comparative case study to elicit the mechanisms of transitions of urban-regions towards Transit Oriented Development.
• Empirical exploration of the potential for applying the lessons learned in a different context (the Randstad), thus addressing the fundamental question of how to transfer  policy lessons across borders.
• Bi-level optimization of multi-modal transport networks in the Randstad
• Robustness model for peak period transport flows in the Randstad
• Theoretical framework for a dynamic multimodal multi-level assignment model
• Operational dynamic multimodal multi-level assignment model for the Randstad area
• Assessment results of multimodal networks for a set of future scenarios for the Randstad
• Extension of stability analysis model for unimodal railway networks to multimodal public transport networks.
• Robustness model for synchronization of transfer connections in perturbed multimodal transport networks.

Expected main results relevant for policy makers

The outcome of the research programme will enable public authorities to achieve a better integration of urban planning and regional development with railway stations and synchronised public transport networks in the Randstad including attractive bike & ride and park & ride facilities. The user-friendliness and reliability of the scheduled railway and other public transport services could be increased by more robust, high-frequent coordinated railway, metro, tramway and bus feeder/distributor lines that offer nearly seamless transfer even during disturbances and can serve as fallback option for car users in case of major incidents on the motorways and highways. A significant shift towards the use of railway and public transport would improve the sustainability of the whole transport system in the Randstad due to less C02, toxic exhaust and noise emissions. It would also help strengthen the position of existing urban areas and divert development away from greenfields. The benefit/cost ratio of future transport infrastructure investment project could be increased by higher frequencies and patronage of railway and feeder/distributor public transport lines and coordinated urban development projects near railway stations in the Randstad. The public transport and railway passengers would become more satisfied by faster and more reliable multimodal trips. Moreover, less energy will be consumed and less travel time would be spent in total metropolitan transport of the Randstad.

Plan of dissemination

Results of the research programme will be submitted to international conferences and refereed academic journals for presentation and publication. The research approach, (intermediate) results and reports will be disseminated to and discussed with the members of a user group consisting of professionals from the government, public administrations and the Dutch railway and public transport industry. Towards the end of the programme a larger dissemination event will be organised for a broad range of practitioners to share the results of the project and to receive comments on the results obtained.

Project 1: Spatial economic analysis of multimodal transport systems

Prof. dr. P. Rietveld, VU

Multimodal transport networks potentially offer important advantages to highly urbanized areas such as the Randstad in terms of efficient use of energy and land. An important question is to what extent such networks are consistent with the preferences of consumers and what will be the long run consequences for land use. These questions will be addressed in the following research project addressing the central research question: What are the effects of strategies to develop high quality multimodal transport networks on locational choices of firms and households, and what are the wider costs and benefits from a social welfare perspective.
In this project we will address this research question via three routes:

1. An urban economic equilibrium model for a multimodal transport system
2. Accessibility and productivity
3. Accessibility and urban densities

Project 2: Integrated transition strategy towards SRMT

Prof. dr. ir. L. Bertolini, UvA

A crucial aspect of the challenge of developing a multi-modal Randstad is achieving more integration between spatial and transport developments. The opposite, however, seems rather to be the case. Endemically congested motorways are testimony of the inability of the car to cope with the relative spatial concentration of mobility, but also of the inability of public transport to provide a valuable alternative when origins and destinations are relatively dispersed. Because more car oriented spatial dispersion is not an option in the Randstad, a transition towards public transport oriented development – or ‘Transit Oriented Development' (TOD) – is required. The main research question is: How to achieve a transition towards TOD in the Randstad?
The sub questions are:

1. How can conceptualizations and experiences of transitions in other domains be applied to the domain of transport and lands use developments?
2. What have been the mechanisms at play in transitions of urban regions towards TOD?
3. How can these insights be applied to the Randstad?

Project 3: Robust Multimodal Multi-objective

Prof. dr. ir. E.C. van Berkum, UT

The central research question is in this project is ‘What is a long-term and short-term robust transport system for the Randstad that performs well, given multiple sustainability objectives such as accessibility, energy use, safety and air quality.’ We will address this question using a two-step approach. First step is a multi-objective optimization (accessibility, safety and environmental impact) using a bi-level optimization approach for number of spatio-economic options that were developed in projects 1 and 2.  Second step in our research approach deals with short and long term robustness of the multi-modal transport system. This project will then provide for different futures multi-modal networks that meet the sustainability objectives. By studying the robustness of the solutions, we will also be able to define a multi-modal network that is best suited to meet the challenges for an uncertain future. Finally, this study also provides insight in the way the different objectives are in line or rather opposite, and how different network solutions behave under different external conditions.

Project 4: Dynamic assessment of multi-modal transport networks

Dr. ir. R. van Nes, TUD

The key question dealt with in this project is how to perform a large scale assessment of public transport systems in a multimodal setting while considering capacity constraints for the various modes and accounting for the dynamics in behaviour over the day. The aim of this research is to develop a framework and to build a corresponding dynamic assignment model that is able to deal with large scale networks such as the Randstad. The size and complexity of this area sets extra challenges, both for modelling as for calibration. Multimodal networks for the Randstad can be obtained using the networks of the New Regional Model for the Randstad. These networks will be combined in an integrated multimodal multi-level network structure. Special attention is given to the characteristics of multimodal transfer nodes as well as the synchronisation and reliability of the multimodal travel chain. The macroscopic dynamic assignment will be based on equilibrium principles while considering capacity constraints (for road traffic, parking, and public transport) and pricing strategies.

Project 5: Capacity management in SRMT and reliable transport chains

Dr. R.M.P. Goverde, TUD

The reliability of railway and public transport networks depends basically on synchronised running, arrival, departure and headway times between/at the nodes in order to offer periodic high-frequent operations with guaranteed transfer connections. This can be achieved by means of conflict-free, robust and synchronised intermodal timetables, which can be adjusted easily in case of disturbances such that the passengers experience the least possible delays, transfer waiting times and discomfort due to rescheduling. The main research question in this project is ‘How can synchronization and robustness of schedules of railway and feeder/distributor public transport networks in the Randstad be modelled such that capacity constraints and delay propagation between modes and lines are included?’ Macroscopic models of railway and other connected public transport networks in the Randstad will be developed to estimate the stability of synchronised timetables, to compute the corresponding network infrastructure and transport capacities, and to determine the traffic load and network occupancy rates. The models enable to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of different multi-modal railway, metro, light rail, tram and bus network and timetable configurations including their robustness against disturbances.